UK house prices flatlined in June, with market momentum fading after the end of temporary stamp duty relief and amid growing economic uncertainty, according to the latest figures from Halifax.
The average property price in Britain remained unchanged last month at £296,665, following a 0.3% decline in May. This leaves prices £2,150 lower than at the start of the year and annual house price inflation running at just 2.5%—the slowest pace since July 2023.
Economists had predicted limited movement in prices, and the latest data confirms that the housing market is struggling to regain its footing. The sluggishness comes despite falling mortgage rates earlier this year and improving wage growth, which had helped to revive activity in the early months of 2024.
However, the recent change to stamp duty thresholds in April has had a chilling effect. The removal of relief for first-time buyers sparked a rush to complete purchases before the end of March. Halifax estimates that buyers who completed on 31 March could have saved up to £11,250 compared to those who missed the deadline by a day.
That rush was followed by a slowdown in activity, with the market still working through the after-effects. “The stagnation in the Halifax house price index in June suggests that the housing market remains slow to recover from both the rise in stamp duty on April 1 and the weak economy,” said Ashley Webb, UK economist at Capital Economics.
Webb had previously forecast house price growth of 3.5% in 2025 but now believes that may be too optimistic, given the slower-than-expected recovery.
There are, however, pockets of resilience. Northern Ireland remains the UK’s strongest regional market, with annual price growth of 9.6%. The northwest of England also saw relatively robust gains at 4.4%. By contrast, London and the southwest saw much weaker growth of just 0.6% and 0.5% respectively.
“The further you get from London, the stronger the trend,” said Adrian Kearsey, a construction sector analyst at Panmure Liberum.
Halifax said there had been signs of renewed activity in recent weeks, including a rebound in mortgage approvals and transactions, driven in part by higher wages and improved affordability tests. First-time buyer numbers have now returned to levels seen before the stamp duty changes.
Still, affordability pressures remain acute for many homeowners, particularly those nearing the end of fixed-rate mortgage deals. Although inflation is falling, it remains above the Bank of England’s 2% target, and there are signs the labour market is softening.
Financial markets expect two interest rate cuts from the Bank of England before the end of the year, which would ease pressure on mortgage borrowers. If those cuts materialise, Halifax expects “modest house price growth” through to the end of 2025.
Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax, noted: “Challenges remain. Affordability is still stretched, particularly for those coming to the end of fixed-rate deals. But the market is showing resilience, and assuming a stable economic backdrop and lower borrowing costs, we could see a gradual recovery in the second half of the year.”
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UK house prices stall in June as stamp duty change and weak economy hit confidence
