Americans face longer lifespans, uncertain Social Security reform and volatile markets — all while retirement balances have reached peak levels for many pre-retirees. The newly released 2026 J.P. Morgan Guide to Retirement argues that traditional rules of thumb may no longer be enough.

Instead, Mike Conrath and Sharon Carson of J.P. Morgan Asset Management highlighted in an interview five themes that they say should shape household retirement decisions today: longevity math, small-business coverage gaps, Social Security realities, tax-efficient withdrawals and what “silent risks” to spending.

Below is a transcript of that interview, edited for clarity and brevity.

J.P. Morgan’s 2026 retirement guide highlights longevity risk, Social Security timing, tax traps and spending volatility.

Robert Powell: The new J.P. Morgan Guide to Retirement is out. Here to talk about it are Sharon Carson and Mike Conrath, both from J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Sharon, Mike, welcome.

Sharon Carson: Thank you. Great to be here, Bob.

Mike Conrath: We appreciate you having us. The guide is jam-packed, as always, but for good reason. This year we focus on five key themes that we’re discussing with clients and individuals.

The themes are:

  1. The math matters – know your number.
  2. Small businesses, big opportunities.
  3. Social Security – expectations versus reality.
  4. Tax-smart savings – making every dollar count.
  5. The silent risks to retirement spending.

Let’s walk through them.

The math matters – know your number

Mike Conrath: When we talk about “the math matters,” we focus on three big questions retirement savers ask:

  • How long does my money need to last?
  • How much income do I need to replace in retirement?
  • Based on those two answers, what is my actual savings target?

Longevity probabilities

We encourage people to look at probabilities rather than averages. No one is average. Longevity varies by gender and whether you’re single or part of a couple.

For example, if both members of a couple are 65 and in excellent health, there is:

  • A 74% chance at least one will live to age 90 or beyond.
  • A 44% chance at least one will live to 95 or beyond.

That could mean 30-plus years in retirement without a paycheck.

Sharon Carson: For most people, we recommend planning to age 100 unless there’s a compelling health reason not to. Planning to the midpoint means half of people will live longer. It’s better to plan to the endpoint.

And remember, plans can be adjusted. Spending can be ratcheted back if necessary. Retirement isn’t pass-or-fail. You can reevaluate annually.

Replacement rates

The traditional 70% income replacement rule does not apply to everyone.

We see replacement rates ranging from the 50% range to more than 90%, depending on income level. Lower-income households often need a higher percentage replaced. Higher-income households may need less.

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Retirement savings checkpoints

Rather than relying solely on salary multiples, the guide uses anonymized household data to create age- and income-based savings checkpoints expressed in dollars. People relate better to dollar targets than to abstract multiples.

Small businesses, big opportunities

Mike Conrath: Small businesses remain underserved in retirement planning.

Among employers with 50 or fewer employees, only 55% offer a workplace retirement plan.

That’s significant, because for many Americans, a 401(k) is the primary retirement savings vehicle.

Recent legislation, including the SECURE 2.0 Act, offers meaningful tax credits to offset startup costs. These are tax credits, not deductions, which lowers the cost hurdle for small business owners considering starting a plan.

Social Security – expectations versus reality

Sharon Carson: There are persistent myths about Social Security.

First, benefits increase meaningfully if you delay claiming. Claiming at 62 can result in roughly a 30% reduction compared with full retirement age. Waiting can increase benefits by nearly a quarter or more for many workers.

Trust fund concerns

Current projections show:

  • The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund could be depleted around 2033.
  • The combined trust funds around 2034.

Even if depletion occurred, payroll taxes would still fund approximately 72% of scheduled benefits over the long projection period.

The idea that benefits will disappear entirely is a myth.

Survivor benefits matter

If the higher earner delays claiming, that decision can permanently increase the surviving spouse’s benefit. That larger benefit lasts for the longer of the two lives.

Many couples underestimate how critical this is, particularly given that widows face elevated poverty risk.

Claiming versus investing

The guide includes charts showing trade-offs between investment returns and claiming age. For individuals living into their late 80s, even with moderate portfolio returns, delaying to 70 can make sense.

Tax-smart savings – making every dollar count

Sharon Carson: Taxes in retirement are about control — not necessarily controlling rates, but controlling which accounts you draw from.

Having a mix of:

  • Taxable accounts
  • Traditional tax-deferred accounts
  • Roth accounts

provides flexibility.

Social Security taxation cliffs

Up to 50% or 85% of Social Security benefits can become taxable depending on income thresholds. These thresholds are cliff-based. Exceed them by $1 and a larger portion of benefits becomes taxable.

Medicare IRMAA surcharges

Medicare Part B and D premiums increase sharply at certain income thresholds. Crossing a threshold can raise premiums by hundreds of dollars per month.

Strategic withdrawals and Roth conversions — potentially spread across years — can help smooth tax rates and avoid unintended surcharges.

The silent risks to retirement spending

Mike Conrath: We define silent risks as both market and behavioral risks.

Sequence of returns risk

Risk is highest near retirement when balances peak and withdrawals begin. Market downturns in the year before or first three years of retirement can have an outsized impact.

Spending volatility

Based on Chase data:

  • 60% of households are “volatile spenders,” with spending shifting up or down by 20% or more year over year in early retirement.
  • About half remain volatile even into their 70s and 80s.

Spending is not linear. Early retirement often sees higher discretionary spending. Later years may see healthcare-related spikes.

Guaranteed income and spending confidence

Households with 60% to 80% of wealth in guaranteed income sources spend 44% more than households with 20% to 40%, even when total wealth is equal.

Guarantees can increase confidence and reduce underspending driven by fear.

Sharon Carson: Rather than trying to isolate “non-discretionary” spending, some retirees may find it simpler to look at average monthly outflows and consider covering that baseline with guaranteed income, while keeping liquidity for variable expenses.

Final thoughts

Mike Conrath: Don’t get overwhelmed. Know your number. If you’re below target, that’s not failure – it’s information.

Sharon Carson: Start small. Get a rough estimate. Build from there. Planning is iterative.

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