The iPhone 17 hit the shelves on Sept. 19 to exactly the kind of fanfare Apple  (AAPL) thrives on.

Following multiple lackluster editions, a lot is riding on the new release, which includes four versions: 17, 17 Plus, Pro, and Pro Max.

These robust new models are headlining the lineup, offering the fastest performance yet and new hardware cues that are designed to lock in upgraders.

Highlights that set the iPhone 17 series apart:

  • All-new titanium casing for durability
  • A19 Bionic chip powering new AI features
  • Best-ever battery life on the Pro Max
  • Enhanced camera sensors and imaging tools
  • Slimmest iPhone design yet on select models

So far, the initial buzz has looked promising, backed by healthy preorders and lines outside Apple Stores in key markets. Bulls touted the Pro models’ richer pricing power as a potential tailwind for sales and bottom-line expansion into next year.

Yet just as sentiment was firming, Apple stock just got thrown a curveball.

A bombshell Jefferies analyst note just raised doubts about whether the iPhone 17 can maintain its early momentum, flipping the script on the bulls who hailed the supercycle math.

Jefferies warns that Apple’s iPhone 17 momentum may already be fading, a surprising twist for bulls.

Image source: Santiago/Getty Images

Jefferies flags cooling momentum for iPhone 17

Apple’s newest flagship might not have the initial firepower after all.

Analysts from Jefferies Financial Group say that initial iPhone 17 demand, which appeared stronger than last year’s iPhone 16 launch, is already fading. 

The warning comes just weeks after the models hit stores, with Apple stock rising nearly 10% in the past month on the growing optimism over iPhone 17 demand.

More AI Stocks:

  • Palantir lands surprise AI deal with 109-year-old titan
  • Nvidia’s deal with OpenAI ‘looks a lot like financial theater’
  • Nvidia spending billions to spread its AI dominance

The brokerage points to delivery lead times, which are essentially the gap between when customers place orders and when they receive their phones, as a critical gauge. Jefferies tracked six key markets and noticed a clear softening, with the U.S. flagged as the weakest across all four iPhone 17 variants.

Consequently, Jefferies analysts remain circumspect, keeping a hold rating on Apple stock while setting a price target at $205.82, implying limited upside.

However, not everyone on Wall Street is on the same page.

Evercore ISI’s Amit Daryanani notes that lead times appear to have stabilized, pointing to steadier demand patterns. Baird’s William Power reiterated a buy rating with a powerful $230 target, citing Apple’s spectacular brand equity and consistent execution.

Related: Tesla analyst unveils eye-popping stock price target

Bank of America’s Wamsi Mohan also kept a buy rating, along with a more bullish $270 target. 

Still, the split points to uncertainty. Some analysts see Apple weathering short-term turbulence, while others warn that the sluggishness in U.S. demand may be harder to shrug off.

Quick takeaways:

  • Jefferies warns iPhone 17 demand is cooling; cuts outlook to hold, $205.82 price target.
  • U.S. flagged as weakest market in delivery lead time.
  • Bulls: Evercore, Baird ($230), BofA ($270) still see upside.

iPhone 17 holds the key to Apple’s next leg

For Apple, the iPhone remains a core profit engine, and whether the iPhone 17 sustains the early momentum matters to its bottom line, not just headlines.

The first reads are constructive, with a recent Evercore survey of 4,000 U.S. consumers showing Pro/Pro Max intent at 56%, above the historical 50% average, pointing to a richer mix and higher average selling prices.

In China, early reports pointed to a power-packed launch weekend, effectively easing fears that its domestic rivals would swamp demand. Moreover, in China, preorders “shattered” prior records, and Apple reportedly asked at least two suppliers (including Luxshare) to boost base-model production 30% on the back of healthier entry demand.

Related: Goldman Sachs delivers 5 words on surging nuclear stock

Supply-chain checks also lean mostly bullish. 

Wedbush says iPhone 17 demand is running roughly 10%–15% ahead of last year’s cycle, production expected to be up 20% for base and Pro models, underscoring the potential for a mini-supercycle. 

Meanwhile, tech analyst Gene Munster notes lead times averaging 2.6 weeks vs. 1.7 for iPhone 16 and models, and forecasts 8% year-over-year iPhone sales growth this quarter.

The earnings math is where it really bites.

J.P. Morgan models 236 million iPhone units in FY26 (a +2% year-over-year improvement) and bumped Apple EPS to $8.20 for FY26 and $9.50 for FY27, led by stronger unit path and mix tailwinds.

If Pro skew and storage upgrades stick while volumes hold up, iPhone 17 can lift revenue and EPS into 2026.

Related: Jim Cramer shares 7 stocks you should buy now