It’s been about two weeks since YouTube TV’s 9 million subscribers lost access to Disney’s channels, including ABC, ESPN, The Disney Channel, FX, and Nat Geo.

Many of them are very frustrated, and it doesn’t help that YouTube tried to compensate them with a $20 credit. 

On Sunday, Nov. 9, the streaming giant started issuing eligible YouTube TV subscribers a $20 credit, first reported by Variety. While this might seem like a reasonable move, given that the subscribers who regularly pay for content had suddenly lost access to many important channels, many users found it strange that the credit isn’t applied automatically and must be claimed manually.

“It’s not automatic so you do have to claim it. Google counting on some subscribers not claiming,” user stu21 wrote in a Reddit thread covering the $20 credit news. 

The two streaming giants can’t reach a deal on a new contract, with YouTube claiming Disney is trying to “force deal terms that would raise prices on our customers,” according to YouTube’s Oct. 30 blog post. 

Meanwhile, YouTube is feeling the financial impact, as an unknown number of subscribers have already canceled service.

In fact, Variety’s survey published Nov. 6 reveals that about 24% of YouTube TV subscribers have already canceled or plan to soon drop their subscriptions. A YouTube rep said that “while subscriber churn is always regrettable, it’s been manageable and does not align with the findings of this survey.”

However, several Reddit threads reveal customer frustration with the way YouTube TV is handling the dispute, arguing that the $20 credit is a one-time gesture, not a solution. In those threads, a number of users also confirmed that they had canceled, or will cancel, their subscriptions.  

What’s the impact on Disney (DIS) from this fallout? 

Image Source: Shutterstock

Morgan Stanley estimates $4.3M daily loss for Disney in YouTube TV dispute

In a Nov. 9 analyst note shared with TheStreet, Morgan Stanley equity researchers Benjamin Swinburne and Thomas Yeh reiterated an overweight rating and a price target of $140 per share on Disney stock, projecting “a big year ahead” for the company. 

The analysts argued that Disney’s portfolio of legendary brands and franchises can be monetized to deliver double-digit profit gains in years to come. 

 “In our view this durable long-term growth is not reflected in shares,” read the note. 

Analysts further explained that the way Disney monetized its intellectual properties has changed significantly over time, and today it is driven by its experiential assets and by its streaming businesses.

“Disney is investing behind these businesses, expanding parks and cruise capacity around the world, while further integrating its streaming brands to compete for consumer wallet and time. We see both of these businesses as offering attractive marginal returns.”

On the streaming topic, analysts pointed out that they were taking into account 14 days of impact from the ongoing YouTube TV blackout, which they estimated at “$60 million revenue headwind.” 

This means that with each week that passes with Disney channels not accessible via YouTube TV, Disney is losing around $30 million. 

And while the analysts projected that the dispute would be resolved later this week, new comments from Disney CFO don’t reveal the same optimism. 

Disney CFO drops a bold warning regarding YouTube TV dispute 

Disney CFO Hugh Johnston was a guest on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Nov. 13 in the morning, where he commented on the fourth quarter and fiscal year earnings results. During the interview, he was asked about the dispute with YouTube TV, and he said that “we are in the middle of negotiations right now.” 

While Johnston suggested that the wheels are turning, that negotiations are ongoing, and that nothing is over yet, he also dropped a bold warning that Disney is ready to fight as long as necessary. The message seems clear that Disney is not ready to back down from the negotiation. 

“Obviously, as we entered the year, we knew this was going to be a challenging battle and we prepared ourselves for it, and we’re ready to go as long as they want to,” Johnston said. 

On Nov. 13 before the market opened, Disney released its earnings results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year ended Sept. 30. 

Disney Q4 and full fiscal year key takeaways: 

  • Revenues in Q4 of $22.5 billion were comparable to Q4 fiscal 2024, and increased 3% for the year to $94.4 billion from $91.4 billion in the prior year.
  • Income before income taxes for Q4 increased to $2.0 billion from $0.9 billion in Q4 fiscal 2024, and increased to $12.0 billion for the year from $7.6 billion in the prior year.
  • Total segment operating income increased 12% for the year to $17.6 billion from $15.6 billion in the prior year.
  • Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 increased to $0.73 from $0.25 in Q4 fiscal 2024. Adjusted EPS decreased 3% for Q4 to $1.11 from $1.14 in Q4 fiscal 2024. For the year, diluted EPS increased to $6.85 from $2.72 in fiscal 2024, and adjusted EPS increased 19% to $5.93 from $4.97 in fiscal 2024.
    Source: Disney press release

Year to date, Disney’s stock is down 3.69%, trading at $107.24 per share. 

Related: Google quietly pulls the plug on a service used by millions