Stocks continue to push higher into the fall season, despite all the policy noise.

The S&P 500 trades near the 6,460 mark, up nearly 1.9% over the past month and almost 14% year-over-year, with gains primarily driven by Big Tech. 

Hence, the market’s resilience has set a high bar heading into October, with catalysts evolving from macro to micro.

However, things just got a lot more complicated with the U.S. government formally shutting down at 12:01 a.m. EST on Oct. 1, 2025, after Congress failed to pass funding.

Beyond the obvious disruption to federal agencies, the most immediate impact on the market is the delay of key data releases, including the September jobs report and inflation prints. 

Early market reactions reflected the growing uncertainty, with equity futures softening and gold jumping to new records.

Looking ahead, the earnings season is likely to dictate the direction.

Wall Street is modeling a 7.9% bump in EPS on a year-over-year basis for S&P 500 businesses in Q3, after a summer quarter that saw beat rates well over the long-term averages. That backdrop raises the stakes for earnings guidance and sector outlooks.

Amid all the commotion, though, CNBC personality, author, and former hedge fund manager Jim Cramer just delivered some specific, pertinent advice. 

The point isn’t contrarian flair, but rather how his framing highlights what investors overlook when politics clash with fundamentals.

Jim Cramer’s take on the U.S. government shutdown has Wall Street talking.

Image source: Galai/Getty Images

Jim Cramer says to keep calm on shutdown, stocks

In the latest edition of “Mad Money,” Jim Cramer just boiled his advice down to a five-word message for investors concerned with the government shutdown: “Keep calm and carry on.”

Cramer argued that headlines typically rattle nerves, but history shows markets usually brush them off. “Over the past half dozen government shutdowns, there’s been no clear trend for what happens to stocks. On average, they actually gain ground,” he reminded viewers.

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Analysts generally concur with this sentiment, emphasizing that the actual impact typically depends on the duration.

For instance, Goldman Sachs estimates a 0.15 to 0.20-point GDP hit per week, while Morgan Stanley keeps it closer to the 0.10-point mark. Both say growth typically rebounds quickly once the government reopens.

For markets, the more immediate risk comes in the form of data blackouts. With delays in jobs and inflation reports, the Fed could be compelled to navigate “flying blind,” adding to the volatility in stocks, rates, and currencies.

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Cramer flagged that, too, saying his primary concern is the Fed not getting timely numbers. “My biggest fear is that a shutdown will delay important pieces of economic data, making life more difficult for the Federal Reserve.” 

Still, he dismissed fears of sustained damage.

“I’m not too concerned,” he remarked, suggesting that furloughs hitting 800,000 to 900,000 workers usually dent GDP briefly but rarely leave permanent scars.

Quick takeaways:

  • The shutdown began Oct. 1, 2025, at 12:01 a.m. EST.
  • Cramer said “Keep calm and carry on.”
  • The expected GDP hit is a 0.10 to 0.20-point decline per week (Goldman Sachs/Morgan Stanley).
  • A major risk is a delay in jobs/CPI data, which tends to cloud Fed policy.
  • Stocks historically gain the most ground during most shutdowns.

Jim Cramer’s latest Lightning Round: big calls and takeaways

In the latest “Mad Money” Lightning Round, Jim Cramer zeroed in on Costco  (COST) as one of his more actionable picks.

He told viewers his Charitable Trust scooped up some of the stock at $900 after a pullback from $1,078, which leans into the club’s playbook of paying up for sustained traffic and membership cash flow. 

Year-to-date, Costco stock is roughly flat, but Cramer’s emphasis was more on reliability over beta.

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On the AI network side, Arista Networks (ANET) , he feels, “is doing so well,” with the stock up 32% year-to-date, on the back of superb demand for AI data-center switching.

Applied Digital  (APLD) drew a pass, despite all the AI-powered tailwinds, as Cramer steered viewers to proven cash generators instead. The market’s been hot here; though APLD stock is up 200% year-to-date, its bottom-line woes remain a sticking point.

Resideo, a Honeywell spin-off, was labeled “played out” following a big run as the tapbacks the caution, with the stock up 87% year to date, following a series of strong prints and outlook raises.

A caller’s coal-and-minerals play, Ramaco Resources, drew a “homework first” response from Cramer. 

Although the stock’s up 223% year to date, Cramer wants more work before blessing commodity cyclicals. 

Similarly, grocer Sprouts Farmers Market was flagged as problematic, and the price action agrees with the stock, which is down 14% year to date.

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