After a relatively choppy 2024, Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL) stock quietly staged an incredible rebound among the Magnificent 7. 

The tech giant’s stock is up roughly 41% year to date, blowing past broader-market gains with aplomb, led by double-digit Search growth, a revitalized YouTube, and a Google Cloud business that’s expanding at nearly a 30% clip. Throw in the Gemini AI rollout across core products, and Wall Street’s been leaning bullish again.

Consequently, the tone around Google stock has shifted dramatically.

What started as more of a cautious recovery has evolved into a momentum trade, with investors betting big on Google’s unique blend of AI innovation that will continue delivering the goods through 2026. 

Now, the market just got something fresh and pertinent to digest ahead of Google’s Q3 earnings.

A fresh note from one of JPMorgan’s top analysts landed this week, with a major reset in how it’s valuing Google heading into earnings, centering on a surprising point. 

A fresh Wall Street call just gave Google a jolt ahead of earnings.

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Legal cloud lifts, JPMorgan sees Google ready to run

Following months of regulatory uncertainty, JPMorgan’s 5-star analyst Doug Anmuth feels the air is finally clear for Google. 

With a favorable DOJ Search Commercial Agreement ruling in the bag, he boosted his price target to $300 from $260 while reaffirming a solid buy rating, calling the outcome a “major overhang removed” moment for Alphabet.

For a little perspective, the DOJ’s case went after Google’s default-search deals, particularly the billion-dollar pacts that position it front and center on Apple devices, along with major browsers.

Judge Amit Mehta’s ruling involved barring exclusivity and trimming ontract terms, but it stopped well short of a potential breakup.

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Google keeps its distribution engine humming, while Chrome and Android remain untouched. Moreover, analysts called it a clean win, which effectively cleared a major cloud over the stock while keeping the search juggernaut firmly in control.

Additionally, he feels Google’s numbers are also backing the optimism. 

Anmuth points out that the tech giant is currently tracking as the second-best performing Magnificent 7 stock this year, spearheaded by steady double-digit Search growth as it continues “innovating at the leading edge of AI.” 

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Moreover, its next wave, which includes Gemini 3, AI-infused YouTube ad tools, and a growing Google Cloud partnership, continues strengthening its competitive moat.

On top of that, the analyst flagged considerable shifts in the model.

He worked in $4.25 billion in regulatory fines in his Q3 earnings model, while he feels Google Cloud sales could potentially jump to $9 to $10 billion annually through new Anthropic deals. He also estimates capex jumping to $114 billion in 2026 and $125 billion in 2027 as AI infrastructure scales.

Summary of Anmuth’s take on Google:

  • JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth bumped his Alphabet target to $300, citing the DOJ ruling as a major breakthrough moment
  • Judge Mehta’s verdict kept Google’s robust search empire firmly intact.
  • AI is driving the next leg of expansion for Google, from Gemini 3 to Cloud deals worth up to $10 billion a year.

Alphabet’s Q3 earnings: bar high, eyes on AI and ad resilience

Alphabet will report its Q3 earnings after the bell on Oct. 29, with Wall Street patiently waiting to see if the tech giant can keep its AI-driven momentum alive.

The market’s bracing for superb numbers with analysts expecting consensus earnings of $2.26 per share (GAAP and normalized) on nearly $100.1 billion in sales. Over the past 90 days, eight analysts bumped their estimates, while 17 ended up trimming them.

That split highlights optimism that’s tempered by margin-related concerns linked to heavy AI infrastructure spending, along with potential regulatory expenses. 

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It’s imperative to note that Q2 set a remarkably high base. 

Alphabet posted $96.43 billion in sales, up 14% YOY, along with $2.31 EPS. Search and Other surged to $54.19 billion (up 12%), with YouTube Ads at $9.8 billion and Google Cloud at $13.62 billion (up 32%). 

The management also lifted 2025 capex guidance toward the $85 billion mark, underscoring the massive push to scale AI models and expand data centers.

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