Palantir’s year has essentially been what might be called a master class in hyper-acceleration. 

Over the past 12 months, the stock has skyrocketed over 300%, jumping from 2024 lows to roughly $180. What looked more like a speculative AI story a year ago reads more like an operating machine that’s killing it on all fronts.

The big shift with Palantir began with government scale. 

In 2025, Palantir secured a landmark U.S. Army enterprise deal worth nearly $10 billion spread over a decade, which effectively consolidates dozens of smaller contracts. Across the Atlantic, NATO’s adoption of Palantir’s Maven system underscored the company’s success in expanding its traction in sovereign defense. 

Consequently, we saw a healthy bump in its U.S. government sales to 53% year over year in Q2 to $426 million.

Then came the tech giant’s commercial breakout.

Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) has essentially become its second growth engine, which is built around “bootcamps” converting pilot projects into scalable deployments. As a result, U.S. commercial sales soared 93% year over year to $306 million in Q2, while total contract value skyrocketed 222% to $843 million. 

Additionally, Palantir has secured 157 deals exceeding $1 million and now counts 485 U.S. commercial customers, representing a 64% increase from the previous year.

As we look ahead, its management expects superb 45% top-line expansion this year, and 85%+ growth in U.S. commercial sales, hoping to post GAAP profitability in each quarter. 

Nevertheless, the climb continues to get steeper. Palantir stock trades at valuations that leave virtually no room for disappointment.

That’s exactly where Piper Sandler senior analyst Clarke Jeffries steps in.

His latest call on Palantir captures Wall Street’s enthusiasm, challenging how far this AI juggernaut can stretch before the numbers start catching up.

Palantir’s AI-fueled surge has driven its valuation to new highs, testing investors’ appetite for lofty pricing.

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Piper Sandler sees more upside for Palantir, but with a warning label

Palantir just scored another major vote of confidence from Wall Street, though not without caveats. 

Piper Sandler’s Clarke Jeffries tweaked his price target to $201 from $182 while keeping an overweight (buy) rating, saying that the AI powerhouse still hasn’t hit its peak. The call implies roughly 13.5% upside from current levels, extending Palantir’s monumental run this year.

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Jeffries says Palantir’s story isn’t just hype; it’s grounded in visibility. 

The company boasts more than $7 billion in defined contracts, along with an estimated $4 billion in IDIQ awards, and has achieved triple-digit commercial booking growth this year.

On the government side, Palantir ranks among the top 100 DoD vendors, and Jeffries even modeled that if just 0.5% of U.S. defense spending shifts toward Palantir, its government business could quintuple.

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On the commercial side, Palantir’s AI Platform (AIP) is hitting an inflection point, with the company management predicting 89% U.S. commercial expansion in the second half and a 145% year-over-year jump in deal value last quarter.

The analyst still feels that Palantir’s current valuation leaves zero room for error. However, with growth rates on an upward trajectory, Jeffries doesn’t quite see an imminent slowdown, but he’s clear that Palantir’s next phase warrants virtually flawless execution to justify its lofty price tag.

Palantir’s stock price premium defies gravity

Palantir’s 2025 rally has left arguably its biggest fans questioning what they’re paying for. 

The stock’s meteoric rise has effectively stretched its valuation far beyond traditional software peers, as it trades at multiples implying virtually flawless execution.

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Year to date, Palantir has jumped 138%, outpacing its large-cap and data-platform peers. Alphabet is up nearly 33%, Microsoft is about 22%, Snowflake is around 56%, and Datadog is near 12%. Hence, Palantir’s ascent is effectively more than 2 times Snowflake’s gain and over 4 times Alphabet’s.

It’s important to note that Wall Street consensus estimates peg Palantir’s average stock price target at $154.20, implying nearly 14% downside from recent levels. Moreover, projections range widely from a solid bull case of $215 to a bear case of $45. 

In addition, Palantir currently trades at extreme premiums across multiple key pricing metrics compared to its peers. 

For instance, its forward GAAP P/E ratio of 416 times towers over Alphabet’s 25 times, Microsoft’s 33 times, Snowflake’s 203 times, and Datadog’s 87 times, underscoring lofty growth expectations. 

On EV/EBITDA, Palantir’s multiple of nearly 703 times indicates that investors are essentially paying hundreds of dollars for every dollar of operating cash profit. In comparison, the ratios are just 21 times at Alphabet, 24 times at Microsoft, 130 times at Snowflake, and 70 times at Datadog.

Finally, its price-to-sales ratio of 121 times is comfortably above 8 times for Alphabet, 14 times for Microsoft, 19 times for Snowflake, and 18 times for Datadog, showing how steeply investors value Palantir’s AI growth potential.

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