Apple is a consumer electronics giant with an envy-inspiring loyal fanbase. 

It’s the largest smartphone maker by market share in North America, and sales of its iPhones, Macs, Apple Watches, and the apps powering them total tens of billions of dollars every quarter.

Smartphone North American market share at a glance:

  • Apple: 53.5%
  • Samsung: 22.5%
  • Google: 6.9%

Source: statcounter global stats.

Yet Apple has a problem. Its popularity makes it a favorite for consumers on top mobile networks, including T-Mobile. However, many people have hesitated to turn in their old phones and upgrade to Apple’s latest offerings. 

Sure, Apple sold plenty of iPhone 15s and 16s after their launches in 2023 and 2024, respectively. But, TelemetryDeck said the iPhone 13 remained the most popular iPhone worldwide in August, representing a 16% share of iPhones in use. Over half of the iPhones in people’s pockets were iPhone 14s or older.

Consumers’ hesitancy to upgrade is perhaps understandable. Apple’s iPhones aren’t cheap, and absent major upgrades, there’s arguably been little incentive to buy the newest model beyond bragging rights.

That’s a problem for Apple because it means billions of dollars in untapped sales and profit—a situation many expected to continue this year following the iPhone 17 release on Sept. 9.

Although Apple’s iPhone 17 launch event drew plenty of attention, few appeared wowed by the unveiling, which included a new iPhone Air, a faster processor, and a better camera.

Given recent comments by T-Mobile’s outgoing CEO, Michael Sievert, that initial downbeat reaction may have been off the mark.

Apple Inc. iPhone 17 series smartphones became available on T-Mobile on September 19.

Bloomberg/Getty Images

T-Mobile CEO touts ‘record’ iPhone sales

Companies like Samsung and Apple rely heavily on deals offered by carriers like T-Mobile to drive unit volume. Carriers also rely on new smartphone launches to create enough buzz to force consumers to upgrade, lock subscribers into contracts for longer, and win new subscribers. 

After Apple CEO Tim Cook’s launch party, T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T offered iPhone 17 specials.

For instance, T-Mobile, which claims to offer the fastest network among major operators, launched its “Get iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17, and iPhone Air all on Us” campaign on Sept. 10. 

That deal provided existing and new customers on Experience Beyond, Experience More, or Go5G Plus plans with a free or discounted iPhone when they traded in an eligible device. 

Apparently, consumers like the deal. 

In a recent CNBC interview, T-Mobile’s Mike Sievert said iPhone 17 sales are off to a red-hot start:

“I can’t tell you what’s going on at AT&T and Verizon or any place else. I can tell you T-Mobile’s iPhone sales are at all time record highs. We just had the biggest iPhone weekend. We’re up double digit from that launch.

Will Apple iPhone 17 (finally) unleash the upgrade cycle?

Apple has been panned for its seemingly slow embrace of AI, and it didn’t announce a big artificial intelligence splash at its iPhone 17 event. Still, that doesn’t mean AI won’t play a role in convincing folks to ditch their slower iPhones in favor of the latest models with better processors and more battery life.

AI is widely available on Apple’s App Store, where Google’s Gemini and OpenAI’s ChatGPT are battling for the crown of most downloaded app. Large language models, or AI chatbots, are increasingly displacing traditional search, with ChatGPT claiming 810 million monthly users and 2.5 billion queries daily.

Top three free Apple App Store downloads:

  1. Google Gemini
  2. OpenAI ChatGPT
  3. Threads

Source: Apple.

ChatGPT and Gemini can be data hogging battery killers, so even if Apple is still working on its own internal AI solution, the widespread use of these other chatbots may be reason enough to toss aside old iPhone 13s, 14s, and 15s, especially if there are good deals at carriers like those offered at T-Mobile.

According to T-Mobile, the iPhone 17 is up to 50% faster and delivers 10 more hours of video playback than the iPhone 15. It’s up to 2.2x quicker than the iPhone 14, and offers 14 more hours of video playback than the iPhone 13. 

Of course, the iPhone 17 design is unique enough to make it look different from prior generations, and that doesn’t hurt demand either.

Ultimately, it remains to be seen how many people will buy the iPhone 17, but so far, backorder wait times are longer than they were following the iPhone 16 launch, suggesting that it’s not just enjoying solid demand at T-Mobile.

According to Bank of America, as of Sep 22nd, ship times for the iPhone 17 are 18 days are more extended vs last year’s iPhone 16 (10 days).

Wall Street takes notice, revamps Apple stock price target

The positive comments from T-Mobile aren’t lost on Wall Street analysts who make a living tracking Apple for shareholders, mutual funds, and hedge fund managers. 

Widely followed analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush was impressed enough by the demand for the iPhone 17 launch to rethink his outlook for Apple stock, setting a new and higher target for its share price.

“Apple is seeing mojo on iPhone 17 upgrade cycle,” wrote Ives on X. “Raising price target on Apple to $310 based on the early strong demand signs coming out of the iPhone 17 cycle. With iPhone 17 officially going on sale we are positively surprised on the demand trajectory…units appear to be tracking 10%-15% ahead of iPhone 16 thus far.”

Long-time analyst and fund manager Gene Munster also offered a bullish take: 

Apple is in a pretty darn good spot no matter how much they mess up Apple Intelligence, because we’re not going anywhere. 

Meanwhile, Bank of America analysts think the early Apple demand bodes well for Apple’s stock price. They reiterated their buy rating on the stock, citing “potential margin upside, strong capital returns, eventual winner on AI at the edge, and optionality from new products/markets.”

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